CPHI Milan Survey faster CDMO growth in 2025 predicted and industry not in favour of BIOSECURE Act

CPHI Milan – the world’s largest pharma event, held at Fiera Milano [8-10 October] – returns next month at a pivotal moment as contract services growth is predicted to accelerate in 2025. These predictions stem from new research findings^[1] from 280 pharma companies. Alongside suggesting better growth ahead in 2025, the findings also suggest the industry is not in favour of the recently passed BIOSECURE bill^[2].

According to most analysts the first half of 2024 has seen a slower than expected recovery, with Gil Roth, President of the PBOA reflecting in the upcoming CPHI 2024 Annual Report on the last year: “While reports indicate that dollars are flowing back to late-stage assets [at CDMOs], there is little evidence that early-stage pipeline products are receiving funding [yet]. This means that the lifeblood of CDMOs — projects moving through the development pipeline and smaller customers sticking with key service providers — remains hobbled.”

The wider industry however is now taking a more optimistic forward-looking outlook for contract services companies’ growth over the next 18-months, with 49% ‘highly positive’, 44% ‘neutral’, and just 7% predicting ‘negative’ prospects.

The other major talking point of contract services in 2024 has been the shortage of available contract capacity for the glut of GLP-1 drugs, but also how the ongoing BIOSECURE Act may affect contract service industry prospects. The consensus is that the Act has further accelerated the post Covid trend for greater supply chain diversity – with both US and particularly Indian CDMOs reporting greater interest for strategic partnerships.

One significant finding was that a majority of the industry is unsupportive of BIOSECURE’s stated goals, with only 19% taking the view that China based-CDMOs ‘are a threat and should be removed from Western supply chains’. Opposed to this position are 38% of respondents who argue that BIOSECURE is a ‘politically motivated issue that sets a concerning precedent for the industry’. The final 43% of the industry – and therefore the largest grouping – take a balanced view, which is both in support of ‘WuXi’s tremendous contribution to the industry’, but also suggests that it is sensible for the industry to ‘diversify supply partners’.

These findings show that global pharma companies – both innovator and generic – are now actively looking for wider supply chain customers and key development partners. More than 600 contract services providers will attend CPHI Milan next month, with partnering discussions expected to accelerate as funding in biotech begins translating through greater deal volumes for 2025 and beyond.

Tara Dougal, Brand & Content Director at CPHI Milan, added: “The contract services zone at CPHI continues to grow year on year, in large part driven by the industry’s need for trusted partners who can provide capacity, help navigate the nuances of complex therapeutics and support the road to commercialisation. CPHI Milan serves as a vital platform for connecting existing and prospective partners, and we look forward to continuing to serve this growing industry segment in 2025, and beyond. We also see a desire among our attendees – i.e. the people awarding contracts – to meet current partners and advance projects, but also to significantly widen their networks as we head into 2025”

Beyond the show floor the event will play host to 150 speakers spanning more than 100 sessions across every facet of pharmaceutical discovery, development, manufacturing and production – with a record 62,000 pharma professionals expected.